Home/Global practice/Choosing your first market
Guide
Pick one, prove it, then replicate
The most common and most expensive expansion error is entering three markets simultaneously with a third of the resource each, and concluding that none of them work.
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- Rule
- One market, proven
- Then
- Replicate the model
- Wrong criterion
- Market size
- Right criterion
- Winnability and cost to serve
The criteria that actually matter
In roughly this order, and market size is not near the top.
Winnability
Where your specific advantage is genuinely an advantage. A smaller market where you can be first choice beats a large one where you are fourth.
Cost to serve
Freight, duty, certification, returns and support. Two markets of equal size can differ by a factor of three in what it costs to actually operate.
Regulatory friction
Registration and certification timelines determine your launch date more than your marketing does.
Language and documentation cost
An English-comfortable market is materially cheaper to enter, which is why the Nordics often beat Germany as a first European step.
Existing signal
Enquiries you already receive, diaspora demand, or a customer who has asked. Real signal beats a market study.
Reference value
What winning here unlocks elsewhere. A Nordic or Japanese reference carries weight far beyond its own revenue.
Why one market first
Three simultaneous entries at a third of the resource each usually produce three weak positions and no learning you can reuse.
One market, properly resourced, produces a working model: positioning that lands, material that converts, a channel that functions and measures that mean something.
The second market then costs a fraction of the first, because most of what you built is reusable. That compounding is the entire argument for sequencing.
The signal most companies ignore
Unsolicited enquiries. Almost every exporter receives them and almost none analyse them, and they are the cheapest market research available.
Where do they come from, what were they asking about, and what happened. Six months of enquiry records frequently point at a market nobody was considering.
It is not conclusive on its own and it is a considerably better starting point than a market size table.
Questions overseas teams ask
What if our board wants three markets?
Sequence them and show the compounding. The second and third cost far less once the first is built, so the same budget reaches all three faster in sequence than in parallel. That argument usually lands.
Should we follow our competitors?
Worth knowing and not worth copying. Where a competitor went tells you about their capability and their relationships rather than about the market's fit with yours.
How long before we know if it worked?
For B2B and industrial, two to four quarters for leading indicators and longer for revenue. For consumer with an online channel, considerably faster, which is one argument for starting there where the category allows.
Can you help us choose?
Yes, and it is usually a short piece of work. Enquiry analysis, cost-to-serve modelling and a winnability view across three or four candidates.
Where do your unsolicited enquiries come from?
Six months of enquiry records is the cheapest market research you own and almost nobody reads it. Send me the list.
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Kunal Waghmare · Padmavati Hills, Mokai Vasti, Bavdhan, Pune, Maharashtra 411021, India
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